The primary elections for the recall of Scott Walker in Wisconsin happened yesterday. Big Labor tossed a ton of money tothe campaign of their candidate (Falk), who then was soundly defeated 58-34.
Meanwhile, Scott Walker ran unopposed to be the Republican candidate.
What's interesting is that Walker supporters had nothing to get excited about, and no real reason to come out to the polls to vote for him. Regardless of what happened on the Dem side, Walker would be the Republican choice. History tells us that in Wisconsin, when there is nothing at stake, turnout for that Party is relatively low:
Traditionally, vote totals in contested primaries vastly exceed vote totals in corresponding primaries that are essentially uncontested. Take, for instance, the 2010 gubernatorial election, when Walker faced off against former congressman Mark Neumann, and Barrett ran for his party’s nomination essentially unopposed. Over 618,000 people voted in the GOP primary, while only 236,000 voters cast ballots in the Dem primary, where there was nothing at stake. That same year, Ron Johnson ran in a U.S. Senate GOP primary against several other candidates, while incumbent Russ Feingold was unopposed. The GOP primary drew 596,000 voters, while Feingold garnered only 224,000 votes. The Republican gubernatorial and Senate primaries drew 263 percent and 266 percent more voters, respectively, than the Democrats.
The same effect traditionally occurs for Democratic primaries. In 2002, a Democratic gubernatorial primary featuring, coincidentally, Tom Barrett, Kathleen Falk, and eventual winner Jim Doyle, drew 554,000 votes. Incumbent Republican governor Scott McCallum, running virtually unopposed, saw 230,000 votes in his primary — giving Democrats a 241 percent vote advantage.
That bit of history is what makes last night's result in Wisconsin so interesting:
Walker garnered about 15,000 more votes than Falk and Barrett combined. Republican voters had absolutely nothing to vote for, and yet they turned out in droves to send a message.
What will Walker's turnout look like when the actual vote takes place in a month? If you are a Democrat in Wisconsin today, you can't be too happy. The Union candidate got an old fashioned whuppin', and the "evil" Scott Walker got 15k more votes than your top 2 options did, combined.
Walker supporters will be even more energized by the results last night, the Unions will now have to double-down on a candidate that wasn't even their first choice. They are in for an uphill battle:
Since the recall was announced, Democrats boasted that the wind was at their backs; they beat their chests about turning in “1 million” recall petition signatures, assuming everyone that signed was going to come out and vote against Walker. Yet even a second-grader can figure out that having 60 days to collect signatures from both registered and non-registered voters is much different from having one day to get actual registered voters to the polls. Consequently, the number of signatures they bragged about collecting ended up outnumbering their total live primary voters by about 350,000.
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