Where Are My Keys?

Remember the graph that showed unemployment figures?

You know, where the blogger superimposed actual unemployment figures over the graph the Obama folks put ou, showing us where job losses would be if we didn't pass The Obama Stimulus right away?  Well, here's an update with May 09 numbers in the mix.  Doesn't appear that the unemployment numbers have leveled off yet, does it?

Remember when the White House Press Corps used to laugh with Robert Gibbs?

Now they are laughing at him:

I wonder if this news will have any impact on Obama's ratings..

Way, way back, a long time ago, in the second week of June, I wrote a post about how Obama was slipping in the polls on several issues.  While his overall approval numbers remained high, there are the beginnings of chinks in the armor.  A spirited debate ensued (isn't that what blogs are all about, anyway?), and a challenge was laid out.  I predicted that Obama's disapproval numbers on the economy will be higher than his approval numbers.  Piker, after claiming that there is nothing wrong with his numbers now, and that everything is peachy at 1600 Pennsylvania, came out with this somewhat muddled prediction himself:

Me, I think the numbers will vary about 4 points on the average. The policy approval/disapproval spread will go no more than 4 points one way or the other. On the whole, I think more will continue to approve than disapprove.

I call it muddled, because Piker never really gave us a baseline number to compare to "the average".  In the original post, Obama's numbers for approval/disapproval spanned three different polling periods, early February, late March, and late May.  I'm assuming Piker will use the late May numbers as his average, which is fine by me.  Those numbers: Approve: 55% Disapprove 42%.  I'm not going to try and get into his head on how he'll calculate how the numbers could "vary about 4 points on the average", or how "approval/disapproval spread will go no more than 4 points one way or the other".  I'll let him try and explain to us how his "math" works to calculate those numbers.

This is why I kept it a simple as possible.   My prediction was:

I will predict that on the economy, Obama's disapproval numbers will be higher than his approval numbers by the end of the summer.

No "spread", no "average".  One number will be higher than the other.

I recap all of this on this news, out today:

The U.K. economy shrank more than previously estimated in the first quarter in the biggest contraction since 1958 as the recession choked industries from construction to services.

Gross domestic product fell 2.4 percent from the final three months of 2008, compared with the prior measurement of a 1.9 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median prediction in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists was for a 2.1 percent decline. Construction activity plunged almost three times as much as originally estimated.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last week that Britain’s recovery from recession may turn out to be “a long, hard slog.” While business surveys have indicated the economic slump is easing, unemployment may continue to increase and net mortgage lending is the weakest since records began in 1993.

“In big picture terms, it doesn’t really change the outlook,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank Nederland Holding NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “The recovery is unlikely to be very strong any time soon. There’s more bad news for consumers ahead.”

While the story is from the U.K., do you expect much of a difference when the U.S. numbers are released?

Monday night wrap..

• The USPS has such a great business model, they are closing 10% of their locations.
• An embarrassing decision for Obama right before Sotomayor confirmation hearings.
• John Edwards channels his inner Tommy Lee?
• Remember these Photoshops next time someone claims the Left exhibits tolerance.
• The Obama Administration moves the goalposts in regard to Stimulus success.
• Obama manages to anger yet another portion of his base.
• Details, details.  I hate when those pesky details get in the way of agenda journalism.
• Why Michael Jackson should get a posthumous Super Bowl ring.  Or three.

The "Gloved One" made it all possible for Captain Chin-Dimple?

Who would have known..

Without Adam Vinateri, the New England Patriots wouldn't have won three Super Bowl titles. Without Tom Brady(notes), Adam Vinatieri(notes) wouldn't have been in a position to give the Patriots those titles. Without Bill Belichick, Tom Brady's quarterbacking wouldn't have set-up Adam Vinateri to hit the kicks to win those titles. And without Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick wouldn't have been in New England to help both Brady and Vinateiri win those titles. And without Michael Jackson (yes, that Michael Jackson), Bob Kraft wouldn't have bought the New England Patriots and the dynasty that was may never have been.

Nothing to see here, move along..

What details are being left out of this story?

WASHINGTON - A Duke University official has been arrested and charged with offering his adopted 5-year-old son for sex.

Frank Lombard, the school's associate director of the Center for Health Policy, was arrested after an Internet sting, according to the FBI's Washington field office and the city's police department.

According to an affidavit by District of Columbia Police Det. Timothy Palchak, an unnamed informant facing charges in his own child sex case led authorities to Lombard.

Authorities said that Lombard tried to persuade a person -- who he did not know was a police officer -- to travel to North Carolina to have sex with Lombard's child.

The detective's affidavit charges Lombard identified himself online as "perv dad for fun," and says that in an online chat with the detective, Lombard said he had sexually molested his son, whom he adopted as an infant.

The court papers say Lombard also invited the undercover detective to North Carolina to have sex with the young boy, and even suggested which hotel he should use.

Lombard was charged in federal court in Washington with attempting to induce someone to cross state lines to engage in sex with a child. If convicted, he could face a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.

Lombard's lawyer did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Michael Schoenfeld, vice president for public affairs at Duke, said Lombard has been employed with Duke University since 1999. He is now on unpaid administrative leave.

"Duke is cooperating with the investigation," Schoenfeld said. He said the university was notified of the incident after Lombard was arrested.

Authorities executed a search warrant Wednesday evening at Lombard's home, according to court documents. The papers show investigators seized two webcams, five computers and a sex toy, among other items.

What did the AP leave out of this story, that might harm "progressive" causes?

The Associate Press (AP) did not mention the fact that the five-year old offered up for molestation was black. Bringing that fact to light might be damaging to the political coalition that exists between blacks and gays. Nor did the AP mention that the adopted child is being raised by a homosexual couple. Bringing that fact to light might harm the gay adoption movement.

Read the whole thing.  The cynic in me wonders what political affiliation the creep has.  Based on prior reporting techniques, if the perp is a Republican, it's generally mentioned in the first paragraph.

The natives are getting restless..

Some folks over at Huffington Post are finally starting to see the light: that Obama is like every other politician, just packaged better than any before him.  Make sure to read the comments.  Hate to say "I told you so", but..

Obama's campaign promise was for a transparent government, yet this past Friday, after 3pm, hoping to avoid the weekend news cycle, his administration announced major events he hoped the public would not see.

Denying the public information, rejecting the public's free speech "right to know" has become a pattern of this administration. Obama has become radical in his commitment to secrecy, not totally unlike the Bush administration.

Late Friday, June 26, 2009:

1. Obama announced a plan to draft laws to detain terror suspects indefinitely.
2. Obama announced it would be done by exec order so as to bypass Congress. The Washington Post article which caught the events was entitled "Executive order of detainees would sidestep Congress."
3. Obama's Attorney General told a federal judge that the suit by the families of the four detainees who committed suicide at the Guantanamo Bay prison should be dismissed because the issue is "fraught with political and military concerns" and Cheney, the government lawyers and the others have immunity from prosecution.
4. Obama's Attorney General again delayed release of a 2004 CIA report which paved the way for detainee waterboarding, sleep deprivation and physical abuse. An extraordinary article by Luke Mitchell in this month's Harper's Magazine shows we are continuing that torture.
5. Obama's Attorney General delayed, again, turning over 35 Bush Era defense documents to Judge William K. Hellerstein, a New York federal judge on a suit filed by the ACLU.

Present First Amendment law arises mostly out of cases dealing with the threats of mob violence. In Brandenburg v. Ohio, a case decided in June 1969, exactly 40 years ago, where there was a Ku Klux Klan mob armed with shotguns, rifles and ammunition, the Court stated the test is whether the speech to the mob was incitement to imminent lawless action.

The prohibition against shouting "fire" in a crowded theatre is the ordinary person's understanding of what First Amendment law tests are. It is the popular way of describing the test that the danger must be imminent. Shouting Fire is the title of an HBO film airing tonight (full disclosure: my daughter, Liz Garbus, directs it, and I am in it) and specifically deals with some of these issues. The film dramatically shows the possibility of theatergoers being trampled after "fire" is cried and why the speaker can be punished. The danger is clearly "imminent" that is the only time speech can be stripped.

This will be a factor working against Obama in 2012.  I've said frequently that 2012 will be different for Republicans, as compared to 2008.  In '08, many stayed home, or voted for someone other than McCain.  I can guarantee that "real" Republicans won't do that next time.  Our base will be out in force.

Meanwhile, Obama is starting to lose a few hundred thousand here, a few hundred thousand there.  Think of some of the positions he took on the campaign trail, which he has reneged on:

• FISA wiretaps
• Executive orders
• Rendition
• Gitmo
• Transparency
• Gay rights/DOMA
• Bipartisanship
• Lobbyists/Tax cheats
• Raising taxes
• Curbing unemployment
• The Obama Stimulus

If he was to only lose 100,000 supporters on these issues alone, he stands to lose over a million votes.  I'm betting the number will be much higher.

We've always been at war with Eastasia..

What does the Obama Administration do when the Stimulus isn't working?  Move the goalposts!

“We always knew we were not going to get all that much fiscal impact during the first five to six months. The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards,” Romer said.

We’ve known for some time that the money takes a while to get out the door.

But top Obama advisers haven’t always been so cautious in predicting how the long the stimulus would take to be felt.

Back in February, with Congress moving swiftly to approve President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package, White House budget director Peter Orszag said the benefits of the stimulus would be “take weeks to months” to be felt.

Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council, was even more optimistic: “You'll see the effects begin almost immediately,” Summers told CNN in February. 

Just last month, Jared Bernstein, Vice President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser, joined administration officials in asserting that the stimulus was already working, despite rising unemployment rates. 

“The idea here is that, yes, the unemployment rate is rising, but it would be rising more quickly [without the bill],” Bernstein said on ABCNews.com’s “Top Line.” “We're spending about $1 billion a day -- and, by the way, with very careful oversight -- and that's creating, again, economic activity that would not have occurred in the absence of this plan. That's the essential point.” 

Then there’s the case of the now-famous chart, prepared in January by the Obama transition team to forecast employment rates with and without a stimulus bill in place.

Obama’s economic advisers saw unemployment cresting at just below 8 percent with the stimulus in place; without it, they forecast the national rate topping out around 9 percent.

The stimulus, of course, did pass, though the national unemployment rate is now 9.4 percent. Two weeks ago, President Obama predicted that unemployment will top 10 percent this year. 

Another glimpse into the mind of the "tolerant" Left..

Professor Jacobson looks at the unhinged Left, and their "fascination" with Trig Palin.

These guys reek of class, no?

Remember that "non-affair" John Edwards didn't have?

There might be a sex tape of the lovers that weren't lovers.  Now that Edwards has nothing to offer Andrew Young, Young has written a tell-all memoir.  In it, he admits that the child belonging to Hunter (Edwards' mistress) is really Edwards'.  Color me surprised.

Former presidential candidate John Edwards is out of luck if he hoped that the extramarital affairs of Gov. Mark Sanford and Sen. John Ensign would take people’s minds off his own cheating scandal.

Former Edwards aide Andrew Young says the ex-senator and his former mistress, Rielle Hunter, once made a sex tape, according to someone who has seen Young’s book proposal.

St. Martin’s Press just inked a deal with Young, who also says in his proposal that, contrary to his public statement last year, he is not the father of Hunter’s infant daughter — Edwards is. Edwards has denied that.

Young says that his belief in Edwards ran so deep that he agreed to take the fall for the candidate, inviting the pregnant Hunter to live with him, his wife, Cheri, and their three children. Later, after Hunter delivered the baby, Young and his family moved to a different home in California.

While he was unpacking, Young discovered a videocassette, according to the book pitch. Hunter had been hired by the Edwards campaign to videotape the candidate’s movements, but this one is said to have shown him taking positions that weren’t on his official platform.

The purported sex tape confirmed to Hunter that Edwards was even more reckless than he thought.

According to our source, Hunter confided to Young that she and Edwards talked about getting married should the candidate’s cancer-stricken wife, Elizabeth, pass away, even discussing what music they’d play at their wedding.