But here's the wow part: The clear circles in the video are what the Toronto defenders should have done. Not tracking—analyzing. Predicting. Evaluating. It uses a combination of data analysis and scouting reports for the opposing players, and knowledge of the team's defensive scheme and personnel to spit out exactly how a play is supposed to look, if it's optimized and run correctly. The values for each decision are calculated based on the expected value of a play, which is calculated multiple times per second. So, what is the value of giving up a 3? How about of going under a screen while guarding a good jump shooter? The ghost players make the right decision every time. That's next level, robots-replacing-humans stuff.
The scarier part? It's not even running at optimal efficiency. The computer model still uses the basic Toronto scheme, instead of trying to just come up with some platonic ideal of NBA defense. That's because coaches still aren't sold on computers knowing best, so the data is being offered up in the friendliest version. Sometimes. In other situations they remain at odds, like with 3-pointers, where the data says even below average shooters should jack them up, while coach Dwane Casey has a heart attack every time a sub-par shooter fires a seemingly idiotic 3.
