Where Are My Keys?

You asked for it, you are going to get it..

Well, not all of us asked for it. 

Get ready for the coming storm.

For the past three years, the biggest argument supporters of Obamacare would trot out every single time when faced with opposition to the mandatory tax, would be that despite widespread predictions of soaring prices, US medical care service costs had remained low and even, on occasion, declined (we leave aside the lack of discussion about soaring deductibles which are recurring "one-time" charges incurred whenever anyone does need medical care, and whose weighted impact on overall medical outlays is dramatic).

A big reason for this delayed increase in prices is that many insurers were unable to gauge the full base-effect impact of Obamacare on their P&L: after all, effective implementation of Obamacare had been materially delayed thus preventing an apples to apples comparison of incurred fees versus revenues.

All that changed moments ago when core US inflation finally spiked the most since 2013 driven by a 0.7% monthly surge in medical care service costs: the highest since 2007!

What's far worse for the troubled US consumer, this is just the beginning. Because after finally digesting the true cost of Obamacare, any recent insurance prime hikes will seem like a walk in the park compared to what is coming.

According to the WSJ, key insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law.

Case in point: 

• In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016.
• In Tennessee, the biggest insurer BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase.
•  In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products.
• In Oregon, the largest insurer Moda Health seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act.

The irony is that while the Obama administration "can ask insurers seeking increases of 10% or more to explain themselves, but cannot force them to cut rates. Rates will become final by the fall."

Why the explosion in costs? Simple: take on look at the IBB or any other biotech index, all of which have exploded in recent years as a result of one key thing: pushing prices of medicines ever higher. Now, finally, these soaring prices which have likewise resulted in soaring stock prices, are about to be funded by everyone else.

...

Since the insurers have now had a chance to evaluate the impact of Obama's landmark tax on the top- and bottom-line, they have decided that they will need to charge the mandatorily insured Americans more. Much more. After all, it's not like Americans have much of a choice to say no to a "mandatory" tax.

 

 

BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, CareFirst in Maryland and Moda in Oregon all said high medical claims from plans they sold over insurance exchanges spurred their rate-increase requests.

 

The Tennessee insurer said it lost $141 million from exchange-sold plans, stemming largely from a small number of sick enrollees. “Our filing is planned to allow us to operate on at least a break-even basis for these plans, meaning that the rate would cover only medical services and expenses—with no profit margin for 2016,” said spokeswoman Mary Danielson. The plan’s lowest monthly premium for a midrange, or “silver,” plan for a 40-year-old nonsmoker in Nashville would rise to $287 in 2016 from $220.

 

* * *

 

Moda Health said that with more than 100,000 individual members, it had the best data “on the care actually being received by these Oregonians. Our proposed rates reflect that.”

 

Under Moda’s proposal, a 40-year-old nonsmoker in Salem would pay $296 a month in 2016 for a silver plan, up from $245 a month this year. “It is a balance,” said Oregon Insurance Commissioner Laura Cali of her rate-review process.

But wasn't the Affordable Care Act supposed to make healthcare prices more, well, affordable?. Well no, as we have explained time and again, most recently last summer.

Who woulda thunk that at some point "we" would have to actually pay for all that "free" stuff.

The incredible shrinking man..

I've been trying to lose a few pounds here and there (travel schedule has made my pants fit a bit tighter!), and wanted to share the results of the first 4 months of my progress.

I've been using my Misfit Shine sleep and activity tracker to keep track of my overall daily exercise, a Polar FT60 heart rate monitor to maximize my workouts, the MyFitnessPal app to log my food intake/count calories, and the RunKeeper app to log my morning rides on the bike.  I've also been using the new Apple iHealth dashboard to keep all my data in one spot, and also track my blood pressure.

I'm happy to report than in four short months, I've dropped 26.4 pounds, and seen my blood pressure drop by 26 points.  Here's the screen shot from the MyFitnessPal app:

My clothes fit better, i feel great, and think i look a lot better to boot.

I haven't really altered my lifestyle too much, other than just paying closer attention to what I have been putting in my body.  I'm still eating pretty much the same food, but just less of it to keep within my daily allowances. 

The heart rate monitor has been a great tool as well.  I used to just ride for a certain time or distance, now I'm hyper-aware of the intensity level, and for how long I stay within certain ranges.  In other words, I'm doing the same workout, just in a more efficient manner to burn fat (and not "just" calories).

If you are thinking of making a New Year's resolution of losing weight, I'm proof positive that with a few minor lifestyle changes, you can get it done.

New York and New Jersey are more on the ball than the White House..

Both Governors showing more leadership than POTUS:

The patients with the highest level of possible exposure will be automatically quarantined for 21 days at a government-regulated facility. As WCBS 880’s Rich Lamb reported, those patients include anyone having direct contact with a person infected with Ebola while in Liberia, Guinea, or Sierra Leone.

Those with a lower risk will be monitored for temperature and symptoms, Cuomo explained.

The New York and New Jersey health departments will determine their own specific procedures for hospitalization and quarantine, and will provide a daily recap to state officials on the status of screening, New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker said at the news conference.

The new procedures already have been put into use at Newark Liberty International Airport.

On Friday, a health care worker landed at Newark after treating Ebola patients in West Africa, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said at the news conference. A legal quarantine was issued for the woman, who was not a New Jersey resident and was set to go on to New York afterward.

“This woman, while her home residence is outside the area, said her next stop was going to be here in New York,” Christie said. “Governor Cuomo and I discussed it before we came out here, and a quarantine order will be issued.”

The woman will be quarantined in either New York or New Jersey, Christie said.

"No viable threat..", ver 4.0

I'm sure it's nothing.

 

"No viable threat..", ver 3.0

The second health care worker infected with Ebola flew the day before being diagnosed (and presumably an active carrier of the virus), on the airline I used for 95% of my business travel*:

A second Dallas health-care worker has tested positive for Ebola, officials said Wednesday, as they also asked 132 people who flew with that infected woman on a Frontier Airlines flight from Cleveland to Dallas on Monday to call the federal Centers for Disease Control.

Officials also warned that additional cases of the deadly virus at the Dallas hospital where the woman worked is "a very real possibility."

...

Jenkins said the second infected woman, who was not identified by name or job title, was isolated within 90 minutes of reporting a fever Tuesday. She is the third person diagnosed in the U.S. with Ebola, which is currently epidemic in three West African countries.

The CDC hours later revealed that the newly infected woman had flown on Monday on Frontier Airlines Flight No.1143 from Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth. The CDC asked all passengers aboard that flight to call 1-800-232-4632. Frontier Airlines, in its own statement, said passengers who also traveled with the woman on Flight 1142 on Friday from Dallas/Fort Worth to Cleveland should also contact CDC at the same phone number.

So now we have expanded the circle of potential infectees by 132 air travelers, flight crew, the people they came in contact with, the folks that cleaned the plane, the other planes that they then cleaned, those travelers, etc.

The plane was "cleaned" twice:

Frontier Airlines said Flight 1142 remained overnight from Monday and received a thorough cleaning per normal procedures. It was also cleaned again in Cleveland on Tuesday night, the airline said.

"Cleaning per normal procedures" of course, meaning wiped down with rags and basic cleaning solutions.  I'm guessing the crew wasn't wearing hazmat suits, and didn't secure and then destroy the materials they used, as the knowledge of the Ebola-stricken passenger hadn't come to light yet.

So did the crew inadvertendly make it worse, and spread the virus?

One sick patient has turned to 2 new cases, which has turned into several hundred (at least) new potential cases to track down and test.

Good thing there is "no viable threat" here in the States.

 

*I've been a loyal Summit-level status member with Frontier for the last decade.  Recently, Frontier changed their rewards policy, and I switched all my business travel to Southwest, and havent flown them for two months.  I've flown Frontier planes in and out of Dallas more times than I can remember.  Glad I made the switch to Southwest.

"No viable threat..", version 2.0

Consider for a second what happens behind the scenes.  We've seen the coverage of what has happened at the hospital in Dallas, where (at least) two staffers trained in how to avoid catching Ebola have now come down with it.  In theory, these should be the people least likely to catch it - they have proper gear, are in an enclosed, controlled area, and have the CDC instructing them on procedure.

What about the "village" of folks that have dealt with the virus in Dallas, that don't have the same benefits as the hospital workers?  The folks that remove the medical waste, scrubbed Duncan's apartment, transport the hazardous materials, etc.  This piece in USA Today is a great testament how regular folks in Dallas rallied to help fill in gaps, and pitch in to solve some problems.  It's the USA at its best - "can-do" attitudes, getting the job done, and being good neighbors.

But it also shows how quickly something like Ebola can spread, even in a Country where there is "no viable threat" of it spreading. 

If hospitals workers, properly outfitted and trained have contracted the virus, what are the chances that the guy scrubbing an affected apartment could catch it?  Could one of the barrels not have been completely cleaned on the outside?  What is one of the barrels shifted during transport, and the lid opened slightly?

The TV show Scrubs offers a few illustrations:

 

It's the exponential factor at work that makes me nervous.  One becomes two, two becomes four, four becomes several dozen in short order.  Factor in how mobile our society is today, and how a single infected person can easily interact with others, and those "green hands" in the Scrubs scenes begin to play out and multiply.

Hopefully, Ebola is contained, and there will be no more cases here in the States, and those affected continue to improve, and survive. 

In the meantime, wash your hands more frequently than usual.

"No viable threat of it spreading in the US"..

A second health care worker at a Dallas hospital who provided care for the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the U.S. has tested positive for the disease, the Texas Department of State Health Services said Wednesday.

The department said in a statement that the worker reported a fever Tuesday and was immediately isolated at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. Health officials said the worker was among those who took care of Thomas Eric Duncan, who was diagnosed with Ebola after coming to the U.S. from Liberia. Duncan died Oct. 8.

The department said a preliminary Ebola test was conducted late Tuesday at a state public health laboratory in Austin, Texas, and came back positive during the night. Confirmatory testing was being conducted at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The statement said the health care worker, who wasn't identified, was interviewed to quickly identify any contacts or potential exposures. It said others who had interactions with the worker or possible exposure to the virus will be monitored.

Officials have said they don't know how the first health worker, a nurse, became infected. But the second case pointed to lapses beyond how one individual may have donned and removed personal protective garb.

"An additional health care worker testing positive for Ebola is a serious concern, and the CDC has already taken active steps to minimize the risk to health care workers and the patient," the CDC said in a statement.

Why is the WHO causing panic and fear over something that is no big deal?

Fear-mongering health officials clearly don't know as much as toner salesmen in California.

Why is the WHO saying this is "The most severe, acute health emergency in modern times", when there is no risk for anyone reading this blog to catch it?

Why is the Obama Administration suggesting we have at least one "Ebola hospital" in every State?  Why are they joining the fear parade?

It couldn't be that people who have the job of protecting the health of their citizenry could have more knowledge of Ebola and the risks it poses than a second-rate actor, could it?

Could it?

Piker is right!!!

In the comments from an earlier post, our friend from California noted that "I believe someone is using fear to manipulate you, but it's not the Obama administration."

He's right, it's not the Obama Administration itself, just the political party that follows him in lock step:

 

No other explanation, right?

A second person in Dallas has contracted Ebola, a health care worker that had close contact with the guy who died last week.  The CDC says that she contracted it because of a "protocol breach", but then noted they were unable to identify what the breach was:

A top federal health official says a health worker diagnosed with Ebola has been unable to identify a breach in procedures that might have led to her infection.

This goes back to my original question on this topic over a month ago: how are people who are specially trained in avoiding catching this horrible virus somehow catching it?  Maybe the first US doctor who caught it over in West Africa was a victim of his surroundings - substandard cleaning areas, not enough powerful chemicals, etc.  But how do you explain a worker who is literally under a microscope in how this virus is being treated in the States somehow screwed up, and did something wrong?  Doesn't pass the smell test.

Either what we think we know about how this virus is imcomplete, or the virus itself is mutating.

Or both.